Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 80¢ at window start → 78¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 77¢ (band 73¢–77¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 12.8:1 bid, $23.3k/$1.8k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $10.7k in 24h

Book 12.8:1 bid, $23.3k/$1.8k within 10¢ · spread 4.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 08 Aug 2026, 05:40 UTC: Sustained reprice: 80¢ → 77¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 08 Aug 2026, 07:08 UTC: Band breach (upper): 77¢ → 78¢ (+1.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 10 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 76¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 76¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.5pts
• Held 44% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 78¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots