Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.6pts: 34¢ at window start → 34¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 34¢ (band 24¢–34¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.9:1 ask, $2.6k/$4.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $9.7k in 24h

Book 1.9:1 ask, $2.6k/$4.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.3¢

Triggers (1)

• 08 Aug 2026, 22:03 UTC: Band breach (upper): 34¢ → 34¢ (+0.8pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 34¢, drift +0.2pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 35¢, held +1.1ptspts
• Peak move: +1.2pts
• Held 46% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 34¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots