Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.4pts: 78¢ at window start → 76¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 77¢ (band 77¢–85¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 7.9× this market's 7-day norm, $168.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 14.9:1 ask, $5.4k/$80.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $299, 2.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 2,958 trades / 7d

Book 14.9:1 ask, $5.4k/$80.9k within 10¢ · spread 0.9¢

Triggers (2)

• 08 Aug 2026, 06:34 UTC: Band breach (lower): 78¢ → 72¢ (-5.4pts), confirmed over 30s
• 08 Aug 2026, 07:01 UTC: Sustained reprice: 72¢ → 76¢ (+3.1pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.71× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 29 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 73¢, drift -0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 75¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.4pts
• Held 37% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 76¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots