Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.8pts: 49¢ at window start → 47¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 48¢ (band 48¢–64¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.9× this market's 7-day norm, $44.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.5:1 ask, $7.2k/$17.9k within 10¢

Book 2.5:1 ask, $7.2k/$17.9k within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 08 Aug 2026, 04:21 UTC: Band breach (lower): 49¢ → 47¢ (-1.4pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 47¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 47¢, held +1.9ptspts
• Peak move: +1.9pts
• Held 97% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 47¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots