US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.5pts: 41¢ at window start → 37¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 41¢ (band 41¢–55¢)
  band from 158 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.6× this market's 7-day norm, $30.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.1:1 ask, $3.5k/$7.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $700, 2.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,872 trades / 7d

Book 2.1:1 ask, $3.5k/$7.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 08 Aug 2026, 18:38 UTC: Band breach (lower): 41¢ → 38¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.21× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 10 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 38¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 37¢, held +4.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 37¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots