US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 32¢ at window start → 32¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.8:1 ask, $22.8k/$63.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.1× this market's 7-day norm, $3.5k in 24h

Book 2.8:1 ask, $22.8k/$63.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 08 Aug 2026, 16:03 UTC: Band breach (lower): 32¢ → 31¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 31¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 31¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 32¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots