US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 32¢ at window start → 31¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 31¢ (band 31¢–36¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 5.6:1 ask, $13.0k/$72.8k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.1× this market's 7-day norm, $3.5k in 24h

Book 5.6:1 ask, $13.0k/$72.8k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 08 Aug 2026, 22:08 UTC: Band breach (lower): 32¢ → 31¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.12× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 31¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 31¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 31¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots