US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 69¢ at window start → 66¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.1× this market's 7-day norm, $65.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.3:1 ask, $2.4k/$10.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $300, 3.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 793 trades / 7d

Book 4.3:1 ask, $2.4k/$10.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 08 Aug 2026, 19:51 UTC: Sustained reprice: 69¢ → 59¢ (-10.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 08 Aug 2026, 19:57 UTC: Sustained reprice: 59¢ → 66¢ (+7.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.57× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 60 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 60¢, drift -1.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 66¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +10.0pts
• Held 30% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 66¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots