US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 73¢ at window start → 70¢ at close
• BOOK Book 3.5:1 bid, $26.4k/$7.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $102, 2.1× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 240 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $30.9k in 24h

Book 3.5:1 bid, $26.4k/$7.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 08 Aug 2026, 03:23 UTC: Sustained reprice: 73¢ → 70¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 25 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 70¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 70¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 70¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots