US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -5.0pts: 44¢ at window start → 39¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.1:1 ask, $5.0k/$10.6k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.2k, 5.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 5,411 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $165.5k in 24h

Book 2.1:1 ask, $5.0k/$10.6k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 08 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC: Sustained reprice: 44¢ → 38¢ (-6.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 08 Aug 2026, 16:07 UTC: Band breach (lower): 38¢ → 37¢ (-1.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 66 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 41¢, drift -2.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 39¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +8.0pts
• Held 62% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 39¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots