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Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -16.0pts: 60¢ at window start → 44¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 70¢ (band 70¢–85¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 43.4:1 ask, $317/$13.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.2k, 3.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 608 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $25.7k in 24h

Book 43.4:1 ask, $317/$13.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (6)

• 08 Aug 2026, 22:10 UTC: Sustained reprice: 60¢ → 54¢ (-6.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 08 Aug 2026, 22:14 UTC: Sustained reprice: 54¢ → 46¢ (-7.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 08 Aug 2026, 22:19 UTC: Sustained reprice: 46¢ → 39¢ (-7.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 08 Aug 2026, 22:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 39¢ → 42¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 08 Aug 2026, 22:34 UTC: Sustained reprice: 42¢ → 48¢ (+5.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 08 Aug 2026, 23:35 UTC: Sustained reprice: 48¢ → 41¢ (-6.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.4× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 255 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 54¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 47¢, held +12.5ptspts
• Peak move: +24.0pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 44¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots