Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 92¢ at window start → 91¢ at close
• VOLUME 1.7× this market's 7-day norm, $113.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 9.5:1 ask, $27.0k/$256.6k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.2k, 1.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 572 trades / 7d

Book 9.5:1 ask, $27.0k/$256.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 08 Aug 2026, 17:06 UTC: Sustained reprice: 92¢ → 88¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 08 Aug 2026, 17:09 UTC: Sustained reprice: 88¢ → 85¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 08 Aug 2026, 17:17 UTC: Sustained reprice: 85¢ → 88¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.23× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 30 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 85¢, drift +3.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 91¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +7.0pts
• Held 14% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 91¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots