Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 92¢ at window start → 93¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 92¢ (band 78¢–92¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 1.7× this market's 7-day norm, $128.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 5.2:1 ask, $35.8k/$187.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.9k, 1.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 638 trades / 7d

Book 5.2:1 ask, $35.8k/$187.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 08 Aug 2026, 22:54 UTC: Band breach (upper): 92¢ → 93¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 93¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 93¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 93¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots