Iran leadership change by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 21¢ at window start → 24¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 23¢ (band 14¢–23¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.8× this market's 7-day norm, $130.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.7:1 bid, $32.7k/$8.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.5k, 2.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 224 trades / 7d

Book 3.7:1 bid, $32.7k/$8.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 08 Aug 2026, 06:33 UTC: Band breach (upper): 21¢ → 26¢ (+5.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.69× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 73 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 28¢, drift +2.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 24¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +8.0pts
• Held 38% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 24¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots