Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.0pts: 43¢ at window start → 39¢ at close
• BOOK Book 6.0:1 bid, $3.0k/$491 within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.4× this market's 7-day norm, $2.1k in 24h

Book 6.0:1 bid, $3.0k/$491 within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 08 Aug 2026, 14:44 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 37¢ (-5.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 37¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 39¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 39¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots