2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 44¢ at window start → 43¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 43¢ (band 43¢–46¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 ask, $64.5k/$79.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.6× this market's 7-day norm, $1.9k in 24h

Book 1.2:1 ask, $64.5k/$79.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 08 Aug 2026, 18:02 UTC: Band breach (lower): 44¢ → 43¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 43¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 43¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 43¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots