Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
Window 07 Aug 2026, 17:19 UTC → 07 Aug 2026, 18:49 UTC
Price at window start 24¢ → at trigger 27¢ → at close 28¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 30 Sept 2026, 23:59 UTC
Frozen payload
REPRICED Repriced +4.0pts: 24¢ at window start → 28¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 26¢ (band 21¢–26¢) band from 160 hourly obs / 7.0d
BOOK Book 2.7:1 ask, $1.8k/$5.0k within 10¢
TIMING First reprice T+476m
WIRE Wire: @FirstSquawk T−476m, link confidence 85%: "Trump: Chinese President Xi to Visit U.S. Within Weeks"
"President Trump says Chinese President Xi Jinping is expect…"
VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $6.1k in 24h
Book 2.7:1 ask, $1.8k/$5.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
07 Aug 2026, 17:19 UTC: Band breach (upper): 24¢ → 27¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
Opening move ≈ 0.67× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
6 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
+2m after alert: 28¢, drift +1.5pts in the alert direction