Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -15.0pts: 49¢ at window start → 34¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 45¢ (band 45¢–60¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.5× this market's 7-day norm, $347.0k in 24h
  volume from the 13:19 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $132.1k/$176.1k within 10¢
  depth from the 13:02 UTC snapshot (no close reading)

DEPTH PENDING · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 07 Aug 2026, 12:34 UTC: Band breach (lower): 49¢ → 36¢ (-13.0pts), confirmed over 256s
• 07 Aug 2026, 12:53 UTC: Sustained reprice: 36¢ → 31¢ (-5.0pts), confirmed over 91s
• 07 Aug 2026, 13:23 UTC: Sustained reprice: 31¢ → 35¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 237s

Context artifact

@zerohedge · X: posted 1h 34m before the break

Trump says it’s up Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh “a little bit, but not completely,” whether to avoid hiking interest rates before the election, he tells Punchbowl News in an interview. Asked whether Warsh should avoid hiking interest rates before the election, Trump told Punchbowl: “Well, it’s up to him a little bit, but not completely. He’s got a board that’s very political … It’s not totally up to him. It’s up to a board. I think he’s great. I won’t be criticizing him.”

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.92× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +30m: 35¢, held +14.0ptspts
• Peak move: +18.0pts
• Held 83% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 34¢
• Graded from 13 snapshots