Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.5pts: 47¢ at window start → 44¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 46¢ (band 46¢–63¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.9× this market's 7-day norm, $3.4k in 24h
  volume from the 01:33 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• BOOK Book 4.4:1 ask, $505/$2.2k within 10¢

Book 4.4:1 ask, $505/$2.2k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 00:10 UTC: Band breach (lower): 47¢ → 45¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 165s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.12× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 45¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 44¢, held +2.5ptspts
• Peak move: +2.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 44¢
• Graded from 16 snapshots