Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.4pts: 96¢ at window start → 96¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 96¢ (band 55¢–96¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 3.2:1 ask, $7.2k/$22.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $19.1k in 24h

Book 3.2:1 ask, $7.2k/$22.7k within 10¢ · spread 2.5¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 20:51 UTC: Band breach (upper): 96¢ → 96¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.01× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 96¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 98¢, held +2.3ptspts
• Peak move: +2.3pts
• Held 17% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 96¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots