OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
Window 07 Aug 2026, 18:48 UTC → 07 Aug 2026, 20:18 UTC
Price at window start 12¢ → at trigger 6¢ → at close 6¢
YES down · NO up
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -6.0pts: 12¢ at window start → 6¢ at close
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 10¢ (band 10¢–13¢)
band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
- VOLUME 118.8× this market's 7-day norm, $45.1k in 24h
- BOOK Book 3.8:1 ask, $1.4k/$5.1k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $630, 3.2× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,304 trades / 7d
Book 3.8:1 ask, $1.4k/$5.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 07 Aug 2026, 18:48 UTC: Band breach (lower): 12¢ → 6¢ (-5.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context artifact
@Polymarket · X: surfaced 4 min after the break began
JUST IN: Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito declares he’s “here for another term,” signaling he does not plan to retire this year.
View the post
Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.
Context
- Opening move ≈ 1.83× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 9 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 6¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 6¢, held +6.0ptspts
- Peak move: +6.5pts
- Held 92% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no
- Price at close: 6¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots