Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.7pts: 92¢ at window start → 91¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 92¢ (band 92¢–95¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 6.4:1 ask, $49.5k/$316.5k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $5.5k in 24h

Book 6.4:1 ask, $49.5k/$316.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.6¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 20:29 UTC: Band breach (lower): 92¢ → 91¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 91¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 91¢, held +0.6ptspts
• Peak move: +0.7pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 91¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots