Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 55¢ at window start → 56¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 56¢ (band 53¢–56¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 3.5:1 bid, $33.4k/$9.6k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $8.8k in 24h

Book 3.5:1 bid, $33.4k/$9.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 20:15 UTC: Band breach (upper): 55¢ → 56¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.67× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 56¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 56¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 56¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots