Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.2pts: 78¢ at window start → 78¢ at close
• VOLUME 4.8× this market's 7-day norm, $86.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 7.9:1 ask, $13.4k/$105.9k within 10¢

Book 7.9:1 ask, $13.4k/$105.9k within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 17:14 UTC: Band breach (lower): 78¢ → 77¢ (-1.1pts), confirmed over 57s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.14× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 153 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 77¢, drift +0.2pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 77¢, held +1.1ptspts
• Peak move: +1.3pts
• Held 12% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 78¢
• Graded from 178 snapshots