Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.4pts: 78¢ at window start → 76¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 78¢ (band 78¢–85¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.9× this market's 7-day norm, $70.7k in 24h
  volume from the 16:19 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• BOOK Book 7.6:1 ask, $12.1k/$92.2k within 10¢
  depth from the 16:37 UTC snapshot (no close reading)

DEPTH PENDING · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 15:13 UTC: Band breach (lower): 78¢ → 75¢ (-2.6pts), confirmed over 215s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.34× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 75¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 76¢, held +2.4ptspts
• Peak move: +2.9pts
• Held 84% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 76¢
• Graded from 18 snapshots