Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 79¢ at window start → 76¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 78¢ (band 78¢–85¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.3× this market's 7-day norm, $42.5k in 24h
  volume from the 11:24 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• BOOK Book 3.5:1 ask, $14.7k/$50.8k within 10¢
  depth from the 11:27 UTC snapshot (no close reading)

DEPTH PENDING · spread 0.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 10:15 UTC: Band breach (lower): 79¢ → 77¢ (-2.6pts), confirmed over 161s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.35× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 75¢, drift +1.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 77¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 59% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 76¢
• Graded from 27 snapshots