Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.9pts: 52¢ at window start → 52¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 52¢ (band 49¢–52¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $14.9k/$14.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $500, 2.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,622 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $2.0k in 24h

Book 1.1:1 bid, $14.9k/$14.2k within 10¢ · spread 0.8¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 17:22 UTC: Band breach (upper): 52¢ → 52¢ (+0.6pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.18× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 52¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 52¢, held +0.7ptspts
• Peak move: +0.9pts
• Held 94% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 52¢
• Graded from 179 snapshots