Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.4pts: 51¢ at window start → 48¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 51¢ (band 51¢–64¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.6× this market's 7-day norm, $26.8k in 24h
  volume from the 09:56 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• BOOK Book 7.2:1 ask, $2.4k/$17.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.5k, 7.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,488 trades / 7d

Book 7.2:1 ask, $2.4k/$17.4k within 10¢ · spread 0.5¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 08:42 UTC: Band breach (lower): 51¢ → 50¢ (-0.9pts), confirmed over 140s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.07× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 17 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 50¢, drift -0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 48¢, held +3.4ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 99% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 48¢
• Graded from 23 snapshots