Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.0pts: 44¢ at window start → 48¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 48¢ (band 48¢–64¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 5.2:1 ask, $4.8k/$24.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $462, 1.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,375 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $26.2k in 24h

Book 5.2:1 ask, $4.8k/$24.8k within 10¢ · spread 0.4¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 23:13 UTC: Sustained reprice: 44¢ → 47¢ (+3.4pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.22× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 13 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 47¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 47¢, held +2.9ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 48¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots