Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.5pts: 68¢ at window start → 72¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 68¢ (band 63¢–68¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 3.6:1 bid, $18.0k/$5.0k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $9.4k in 24h

Book 3.6:1 bid, $18.0k/$5.0k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 20:15 UTC: Band breach (upper): 68¢ → 72¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.82× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 72¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 72¢, held +4.5ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 90% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 72¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots