REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
Window 07 Aug 2026, 19:13 UTC → 07 Aug 2026, 20:43 UTC
Price at window start 43¢ → at trigger 46¢ → at close 45¢
YES up · NO down
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +2.5pts: 43¢ at window start → 45¢ at close
- BOOK Book 1.8:1 bid, $5.2k/$2.8k within 10¢
- TIMING First reprice T+495m
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $600, 2.5× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,846 trades / 7d
- WIRE Wire: @FirstSquawk T−495m, link confidence 90%: "Saudi Arabia, Turkey & Pakistan Forge Joint Defence Pact Amid Rising Middle East Tensions
"Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and…"
- VOLUME 0.6× this market's 7-day norm, $11.7k in 24h
Book 1.8:1 bid, $5.2k/$2.8k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢
Triggers (3)
- 07 Aug 2026, 19:13 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 46¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 07 Aug 2026, 19:27 UTC: Sustained reprice: 46¢ → 43¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
- 07 Aug 2026, 20:16 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 46¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.16× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 16 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 47¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 45¢, held +2.0ptspts
- Peak move: +4.5pts
- Held 56% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 45¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots