US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.5pts: 65¢ at window start → 62¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.5:1 bid, $7.7k/$3.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.8k, 4.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 4,809 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.7× this market's 7-day norm, $165.5k in 24h

Book 2.5:1 bid, $7.7k/$3.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 19:52 UTC: Sustained reprice: 65¢ → 60¢ (-5.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 90 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 59¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 61¢, held +4.5ptspts
• Peak move: +8.5pts
• Held 41% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 62¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots