REPRICED
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Window 07 Aug 2026, 17:36 UTC → 07 Aug 2026, 19:06 UTC
Price at window start 49¢ → at trigger 53¢ → at close 64¢
YES up · NO down
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +15.0pts: 49¢ at window start → 64¢ at close
- BOOK Book 1.8:1 bid, $7.4k/$4.1k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $5.8k, 15.2× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 4,590 trades / 7d
- VOLUME 1.9× this market's 7-day norm, $165.5k in 24h
Book 1.8:1 bid, $7.4k/$4.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (2)
- 07 Aug 2026, 17:36 UTC: Sustained reprice: 49¢ → 53¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 07 Aug 2026, 19:02 UTC: Sustained reprice: 53¢ → 64¢ (+10.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 109 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 53¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 52¢, held +3.0ptspts
- Peak move: +16.5pts
- Held 91% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: no data
- Price at close: 64¢
- Graded from 179 snapshots