OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Window 07 Aug 2026, 23:27 UTC → 08 Aug 2026, 00:57 UTC
Price at window start 64¢ → at trigger 68¢ → at close 60¢
YES up · NO down
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -4.0pts: 64¢ at window start → 60¢ at close
- BOOK Book 2.5:1 bid, $18.0k/$7.2k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $458, 1.1× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 4,848 trades / 7d
- VOLUME 1.7× this market's 7-day norm, $165.5k in 24h
Book 2.5:1 bid, $18.0k/$7.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (2)
- 07 Aug 2026, 23:27 UTC: Band breach (upper): 64¢ → 68¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
- 07 Aug 2026, 23:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 68¢ → 63¢ (-5.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context artifact
@zerohedge · X: posted 1h 40m before the break
US Official: Hormuz Deal Is Imminent, Upon Which US Will Lift Blockade Of Iranian Ports https://t.co/EyYo9XlbJX
View the post
Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 52 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 63¢, drift -5.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 63¢, held -0.5ptspts
- Peak move: +5.5pts
- Held 0% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 60¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots