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Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 43¢ at window start → 45¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 47¢ (band 47¢–64¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 3.8:1 ask, $10.9k/$41.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.0k, 2.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,917 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.6× this market's 7-day norm, $37.3k in 24h

Book 3.8:1 ask, $10.9k/$41.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 20:09 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 46¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.19× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 29 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 46¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 45¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 45¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots