Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 41¢ at window start → 41¢ at close
• VOLUME 6.5× this market's 7-day norm, $12.5k in 24h
  volume from the 01:33 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 bid, $17.9k/$12.5k within 10¢

Book 1.4:1 bid, $17.9k/$12.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 00:15 UTC: Band breach (upper): 41¢ → 42¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 64s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 41¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 41¢, held -0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 41¢
• Graded from 14 snapshots