NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 24¢ at window start → 24¢ at close
• VOLUME 3.9× this market's 7-day norm, $62.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.6:1 ask, $5.2k/$13.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.1k, 5.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,790 trades / 7d

Book 2.6:1 ask, $5.2k/$13.5k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 21:38 UTC: Band breach (lower): 24¢ → 23¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 23¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 24¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 24¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots