NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 24¢ at window start → 27¢ at close
• VOLUME 1.7× this market's 7-day norm, $29.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.3:1 bid, $16.9k/$5.1k within 10¢
  depth from the 02:29 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.4k, 6.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,804 trades / 7d

DEPTH PENDING · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 01:34 UTC: Sustained reprice: 24¢ → 27¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 61s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.75× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 20 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 27¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 28¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 75% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 27¢
• Graded from 28 snapshots