Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 90¢ at window start → 91¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 90¢ (band 56¢–90¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 10.1:1 ask, $21.5k/$217.0k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.6k, 3.6× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 345 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $58.2k in 24h

Book 10.1:1 ask, $21.5k/$217.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 21:50 UTC: Band breach (upper): 90¢ → 91¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 91¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 91¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 91¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots