OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Polymarket
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Window 07 Aug 2026, 13:36 UTC → 07 Aug 2026, 15:06 UTC
Price at window start 22¢ → at trigger 25¢ → at close 22¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 22¢ at window start → 22¢ at close
- VOLUME 3.6× this market's 7-day norm, $75.9k in 24h
volume from the 14:23 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
- BOOK Book 7.1:1 bid, $27.7k/$3.9k within 10¢
depth from the 14:39 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
DEPTH PENDING · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
- 07 Aug 2026, 13:36 UTC: Band breach (upper): 22¢ → 25¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 224s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.37× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 11 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +30m: 23¢, held +1.0ptspts
- Peak move: +3.0pts
- Held 0% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 22¢
- Graded from 16 snapshots