Iran leadership change by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 23¢ at window start → 23¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 23¢ (band 14¢–23¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.5× this market's 7-day norm, $51.5k in 24h
  volume from the 11:24 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• BOOK Book 5.3:1 bid, $26.2k/$5.0k within 10¢
  depth from the 11:27 UTC snapshot (no close reading)

DEPTH PENDING · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 10:28 UTC: Band breach (upper): 23¢ → 25¢ (+2.5pts), confirmed over 111s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.31× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 25¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 22¢, held -1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.5pts
• Held 20% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 23¢
• Graded from 22 snapshots