Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.5pts: 43¢ at window start → 47¢ at close
• BOOK Book 4.9:1 ask, $691/$3.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $5.6k in 24h

Book 4.9:1 ask, $691/$3.4k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 20:30 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 46¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.14× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 46¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 46¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 47¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots