Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.0pts: 55¢ at window start → 51¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 57¢ (band 57¢–66¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.5× this market's 7-day norm, $11.7k in 24h
  volume from the 14:23 UTC snapshot (no close reading)
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $6.2k/$4.6k within 10¢
  depth from the 14:15 UTC snapshot (no close reading)

DEPTH PENDING · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 12:59 UTC: Sustained reprice: 55¢ → 50¢ (-5.0pts), confirmed over 190s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.63× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 50¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 50¢, held +5.0ptspts
• Peak move: +5.0pts
• Held 80% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 51¢
• Graded from 19 snapshots