Fed decision in Sep 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +13.5pts: 50¢ at window start → 64¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 52¢ (band 49¢–52¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 ask, $191.8k/$265.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.9k, 9.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 128 trades / 7d
• VOLUME $367.7k in 24h (7-day norm still forming)

Book 1.4:1 ask, $191.8k/$265.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 20:15 UTC: Band breach (upper): 50¢ → 64¢ (+13.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 4.5× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 46 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 64¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 64¢, held +13.5ptspts
• Peak move: +13.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 64¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots