2028 Democratic presidential nominee

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 17¢ at window start → 14¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 15¢ (band 15¢–18¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.0:1 bid, $48.7k/$47.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $4.5k in 24h

Book 1.0:1 bid, $48.7k/$47.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 07 Aug 2026, 20:15 UTC: Band breach (lower): 17¢ → 14¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 14¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 14¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 14¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots