Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -4.0pts: 60¢ at window start → 56¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 58¢ (band 58¢–66¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.5× this market's 7-day norm, $35.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.9:1 ask, $3.8k/$18.7k within 10¢

Book 4.9:1 ask, $3.8k/$18.7k within 10¢ · spread 0.4¢

Triggers (1)

• 06 Aug 2026, 03:10 UTC: Band breach (lower): 60¢ → 57¢ (-2.3pts), confirmed over 506s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.26× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +30m: 56¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.2pts
• Held 96% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 56¢
• Graded from 28 snapshots