US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.5pts: 54¢ at window start → 55¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 54¢ (band 32¢–54¢)
  band from 158 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 2.4:1 bid, $9.5k/$3.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.6× this market's 7-day norm, $16.3k in 24h

Book 2.4:1 bid, $9.5k/$3.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 06 Aug 2026, 05:08 UTC: Band breach (upper): 54¢ → 55¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 89s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.05× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 55¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 55¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 55¢
• Graded from 30 snapshots