OUTSIDE BAND
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Polymarket
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Window 06 Aug 2026, 12:18 UTC → 06 Aug 2026, 13:48 UTC
Price at window start 65¢ → at trigger 70¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 15 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced +5.5pts: 65¢ at window start → 70¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 67¢ (band 14¢–67¢)
band from 160 hourly obs / 7.0d
- BOOK Book 3.5:1 bid, $15.3k/$4.4k within 10¢
- UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $735, 2.0× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 4,109 trades / 7d
Triggers (1)
- 06 Aug 2026, 12:18 UTC: Band breach (upper): 65¢ → 70¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 173s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time