South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 57¢ at window start → 55¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 56¢ (band 56¢–65¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.7× this market's 7-day norm, $109.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 8.4:1 ask, $6.0k/$50.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $4.4k, 4.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,989 trades / 7d

Book 8.4:1 ask, $6.0k/$50.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 06 Aug 2026, 02:33 UTC: Band breach (lower): 57¢ → 56¢ (-2.0pts), confirmed over 120s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.21× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 19 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +30m: 57¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 55¢
• Graded from 26 snapshots