OUTSIDE BAND
WINDOW OPEN: LIVE
Polymarket
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
Window 06 Aug 2026, 19:31 UTC → 06 Aug 2026, 21:01 UTC
Price at window start 10¢ → at trigger 9¢
YES down · NO up
Live payload
- REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 10¢ at window start → 9¢ now
- OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 9¢ (band 9¢–30¢)
band from 161 hourly obs / 7.0d
DEPTH PENDING
Triggers (1)
- 06 Aug 2026, 19:31 UTC: Band breach (lower): 10¢ → 9¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 665s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.02× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time